Hand Reading starts with knowing something about your opponent. You have to know what your opponent is capable of doing, and with what general range of hands.

For example, a raise from middle position by the tightest player at the table probably means a very strong hand, most likely AT suited or better, or pocket 99 or better. A raise from middle position from a very loose, aggressive player could mean almost any suited connector, Broadway cards, pocket pair, etc.

 

So it starts with knowing your opponent. If I’m on the button against the first raiser, I’m probably going to fold all hands except AT suited or better, and pocket 99 or better. Against the loose raiser, I can play hands such as KT suited, QJ suited, and all pocket pairs.

 

 

 

 

For example, lets say you are holding 5c 6d in the big blinds, and there are 2 limpers in the pot, and both limpers are solid, but predictable players. The big blind (who happens to be a tight player), calls.

 

AT THIS POINT…you should be putting your opponents on a range. It is unlikely anyone is holding AK, or AQ, as these hands are usually raised preflop. It is also unlikely that anyone holds a pocket pair 99 or better, as these hands are usually raised preflop.

 

It is more likely that your opponents hold a small pocket pair, or some sort of broadway cards…like KT, QJ, KJ, etc.

Knowing this, you know that if the flop is all orphans, and has no draws, it is likely you can steal the pot for cheap. A flop of 2 3 9 rainbow will offer a high likelihood of missing everyone, and you can try to grab it cheap. Also, you know you will probably be beat if the flop is As Qs 6h.

 

So, because we have already started to put our opponents on a range, we can start making a plan as to what we will do as the hand progresses. This is CRUCIAL to winning at poker.

 

The flop comes down 5h 6h 7d

 

The tight player in the small blinds checks it. You’ve flopped bottom two pair, but the board is full of draws, However, we know the 2 limpers probably limped with a pocket pair, or broadway cards. Given this, the only way they have you beat is if they hit a set. Furthermore, they aren’t tricky players, so they probably won’t call with air.

 

You decide to bet the pot. You don’t want to slow play it, because of the possible draws, and you need to know if your beat now, before the pot gets too big.

 

Suddenly, the big blind raises your bet 3x the pot. The two limpers fold. At this point…we need to figure out what the big blinds possible range is, and what he would make a play like this with.

 

We know he’s tight, and therefore he probably didn’t slowplay AA, KK, QQ, or some other monster. With two limpers in, he would have wanted to get some money in preflop. So this reduces this possibility.

 

So, that leaves overcards, a set, two pair, a straight, or he paired the board.

 

Now, lets break this down. He is tight, and he isn’t likely to be raising with just a pair with two limpers yet to act. And we have never seen him play foolishly, so it’s very unlikely that he is bluffing or semi bluffing with two overcards or a flush draw.

 

So, we conclude because he is tight, and making an aggressive play with two players left to act, he most likely has better than 1 pair now. So, what could he have that is better than 1 pair?

 

Well, he could have two pair. He could hold 5 6, 5 7, or 6 7. He  could also hold a set, pocket 55, 66, or 77. He could also have a straight, 4 8, 3 4, or 8, 9.

 

Of these hands, we conclude that there is a 75% chance that our opponent has better than a pair.

 

Now, of the hands better than a pair, what do we beat? Well, nothing. We have the weakest hand that is better than a pair. He could have a set 3 different ways, he could have 2 pair 3 different ways, and he could have a straight 3 different ways.

8 hands beat us, 1 hand we tie with. So, since there is a 75% chance that we are beat, and nearly all hands that he could have actually beat us, the correct move here is to fold.

 

We fold, and he shows 4 8, for the 2^nd nut straight. By putting our opponent on a range, we were able to determine we were very likely behind, even with 2 pair. Our fold was the proper play to make.

 

 

Lets take another example. Lets say you have 88 on the button, and a loose aggressive player from mid position opens for raise 4X the big blinds, and you call.

 

The flop is 8s, 9d, Tc. You’ve flopped bottom set against a smart, loose, aggressive player

 

He’s first to act, and he bets ¾ the pot. Since he’s loose and aggressive, this is an expected play from him. He could be betting this with almost anything. Any pair, any overcards, any set, etc. So, you decide there is a 40% chance he is on a semi bluff or bluff, and a 60% chance he has at least top pair. So we start to figure out what he could have if he has top pair.

 

We know he could have raised preflop with 89s, 9Ts, JTs, QTs, KTs, or AT. He also could have raise preflop with 77, 99, TT, JJ, QQ, KK, or AA. Furthermore, he could have raised preflop with QJ.

 

Out of these 14 possible hands, only 3 of them beat us. 99, TT, and QJ. So, of his possible made hands, we are way ahead. 

 

Anything other than these hands, he is on a semi bluff and he’s drawing to the straight.

 

So, if he is drawing to a straight, he has about a 1 in 6 chance of hitting the straight on the next card.

 

Based on this assessment, we are only behind 3 possible hands, and we want to make him pay for his draw, so we triple his bet.

 

He thinks about this for a while, and then decides to fold. He simply doesn’t want to play for a lot of money with a weak or unmade hand.