You are in late position, with $1000 in your stack. You have one opponent who has $900 in his stack, and he raised preflop from early position. You called it. The pot is currently $60.00. Your opponent bets $40.00 into the pot.
Now, lets also say you know your opponent has pocket AA, giving him trips. So your only real outs to beat him are another spade, giving you the nut flush.
Should you call this $30.00 bet, hoping to hit another spade on the turn? Well, the answer actually depends on whether you will get paid off or not.
If your opponent is very tight, decent, and will lay down his trip Aces if the turn is a spade, then no, you should not call. You are not getting correct odds, and your opponent will not pay you off if you hit.
But, what if your opponent is loose, aggressive, and is known to push all in with top pair, top kicker?
Well, now calling is probably the right decision now. The reason is, even though the actual pot odds are 2:1, you are not playing for what is in the pot. You are playing for the remaining $860 in his stack. So, calling $30 to win a potential $860 is giving you almost 30:1 odds. If you believe he will stack off with you when the flush card hits, you have to call this bet.
This is an implied odds situation. But, notice how it is not absolute! You actually have to have a read on your opponent, and have an idea of what hand he has, and will be willing to commit enough chips to make this call positive E.V.
Actually, implied odds is the reason we play small pocket pairs from every position, hoping to hit a set. In fact, we actually HOPE our opponent is holding AA, KK, QQ, etc, when we play small pockets.
The reason why is, we will get paid off the 1 in 7.5 times we hit our set. Obviously, we are beat at this point if they hold AA, KK, QQ, or any over pair. But, we believe they will pay us off should we hit.
It is implied odds that can justify a call when pot odds can‘t. BUT, you have to be fairly confident you will get paid properly for calling.
If your opponent is tight, smart, or has a marginal hand, they probably won’t pay you off much if you do hit. If you hold Qs, 9s, and the board is As, Kc, 5s, 9s It’s going to be hard to squeeze a big bet out of someone if they are holding pocket TcTd. A big bet will probably scare them, even though they MIGHT have bet it on the flop! So even if you hit that spade flush on the turn, they won’t pay you off. This is a situation where your implied odds are very low, though it may be hard to tell.
As a rule, If I’m not fairly certain I am getting the right implied odds, I will not play the hand if that’s how I plan to profit.
I won’t call against my pot odds against most opponents. I will make exceptions if I have seen opponents get carried away consistently with one pair, or less. Or, if I have seen them call big bets when the scary flush or turn card hits.
The bottom line is, I have to know my opponent will overplay his hand. The only way I know this is because I have seen him do it in the past, and know he will OFTEN make this mistake.
Hand reading and knowing your opponent is an important part of calculating implied odds. And even though it’s not as cut and dry as pot odds, implied odds can make you a lot of money, if you know your opponent and the situation. Take the time to master this skill, as it becomes more necessary the higher in limits you go.
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