So, over the long run, every 4 bets you call, you will win 8 bets.
In this case, you need to call, because this is a positive EV play.
Now, lets say you have a 20% chance to hit your hand, but your opponent makes a pot sized bet. Well, if you call, you are paying 50% of the pot, but you will only hit 20% of the time. So, over the long run, you will lose 30% of your call every time you make it.
So, if someone bets too big, you will not be getting the right pot odds to call. Therefore, calling will put you in a negative EV situation.
Folding is the correct action in this case.
Lets look at a real example.
Lets say you have Ks 5s, and the flop is 6s 9h As.
You have a flush draw to the nuts. You have a 20% chance of hitting a spade on the turn. Lets say the pot is currently $100.00 on the flop.
If your opponent bets $20.00, then you have to call. Your opponent is offering you better than 5:1 on your money, on a draw that you will hit 4:1.
But what if your opponent bets $50.00 into a $100 pot? Now he is offering you 3:1, and you will only hit your outs 4:1. It is no longer profitable to call his bet, because you will not hit your flush enough to justify the call. Over the long run, calling here will cost more money in calls than the pot will be worth when you hit.
For those of you who don’t yet know how to calculate percentages and odds from outs, click here to read this article on odds calculations.
This is pot odds. Knowing outs, and then from your outs calculating pot odds is second nature to every profitable poker player. It is the basis for knowing whether it is profitable to call on a draw.
Once this is learned, the next step is to consider implied odds. Implied odds are the odds your opponent will call a bet when you hit your hand, and therefore, be worth much more than the pot is currently showing.
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